RCFoC for May 29, 2000 - Disruptive = Technologies

From: Subject: RCFoC for May 29, 2000 - Disruptive Technologies Date: Fri, 14 Jul 2000 13:35:25 -0700 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_004D_01BFED98.5E2AD320"; type="text/html" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.00.2919.6700 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_004D_01BFED98.5E2AD320 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://www.compaq.com/rcfoc/20000529.html RCFoC for May 29, 2000 - Disruptive = Technologies

home welcome = about = subscribe feedback = archives=20

=20

=20

by Jeffrey R. Harrow=20
Principal Member of Technical = Staff,
=20 Technology & Corporate Development
Compaq Computer=20 Corporation

May 29,=20 2000

Disruptive=20 Technologies

In This = Issue:=20

RCFoC= =20 Radio!=20

Is It = Happening=20 Again?=20

Could = The=20 Wireless Web Take The Lead!?!=20

Silicon'= s Serious=20 E-Ticket Ride!=20

Ecommerc= e=20 Update.=20

Tidbits.= ..=20

From = Out of the=20 Ether.=20

The = Unwanted=20 Ecommerce.=20

About = the=20 "Rapidly Changing Face of Computing..."=20

RCFoC Radio!

As always, the RCFoC is also available = as a=20 "radio" show in three Web-based audio-on-demand flavors: "RealAudio" = technology=20 from RealNetworks, ToolVOX from VOXware, and MP3. It's easy to set up = and use,=20 and works over even slow modems -- give it a try by clicking on the = "RCFoC=20 Radio" icon next to this issue on the RCFoC home page at http://www.compaq.com/rcfoc = !

=20

Need help acquiring or setting up the = players?=20 Information is a click away at http:/= /www.compaq.com/rcfoc/rcfoc_radio_help_general.html=20 .

Back to Table of=20 Contents

Is It=20 Happening Again?

The tale of Canadian = iCraveTV.com=20 has been a classic David and Goliath story. This tiny startup began = Webcasting U.S.=20 and Canadian TV broadcasts (http://w= ww.compaq.com/rcfoc/20000207.html#_Toc474135690), only to fall under the threat of = literally=20 billions of dollars of lawsuits from just about every "Goliath" that = produced or=20 broadcast the content they were Webcasting. So this "David" assessed the = situation,=20 took his sling, and slunk off home (http://w= ww.compaq.com/rcfoc/20000313.html#_Toc477171980). =20

That might have been = enough pressure=20 to discourage anyone, but in true Internet style, a new "David," David = Simon,=20 has thought up a new Webcasting wrinkle that he calls "RecordTV.com" = (http://www.recordtv.com/).

Rather than simply = rebroadcasting=20 TV content onto the Web, RecordTV.com uses a VCR metaphor, only = recording those=20 shows that you specifically request, and then sending them to you over = the Web=20 at your convenience. The=20 difference, in Simon's mind, is that since his site is providing the = same=20 services as a VCR, it should fall under the same legal exemptions that = allow you=20 to use a VCR in your home to record programs for your own personal = use. The fact that his "VCR" is = located=20 elsewhere, he reasons, doesn’t change things.

I haven't = tried this=20 service myself, so I don't know how well it works or what the quality of = the=20 "taped" shows might be; RecordTV.com was moving to a new site when I = went to=20 check them out. But they = expect to=20 be back "on the air" soon after you read this.

I continue to = strongly=20 support the need to protect intellectual property. Yet I just "know" that the = demand that=20 people are showing for anywhere, anywhen video-on-demand over the Web is = going=20 to, eventually, break free. =20 Consider that without advertising its presence, RecordTV.com has = already=20 amassed 50,000 registered users and receives 200,000 hits per day, = according to=20 the May 16 News.com - http://news.cn= et.com/news/0-1004-200-1884230.html=20 .

In fact, I suggest = that in the=20 sprit of Clayton Christensen's book The Innovator's Dilemma = (thanks,=20 Rafael Alvarez, for the loan of the book), delivering broadcast TV over = the=20 Internet is a classic "disruptive technology." TV over the = Internet=20 clearly underperforms most aspects of traditional broadcast TV: its = quality is=20 far lower; the majority of TV viewers couldn't care less about hassling = with the=20 Internet to receive these Web-based broadcasts; and those that it does = appeal to=20 represent a small and very untraditional TV audience.

But, for the = (currently) small=20 audience that is willing to put up with these very real limitations, = Web-based=20 TV can do things that traditional TV cannot. It's cheaper and easier than = any=20 alternative for watching TV that isn't broadcast or carried on a local = cable in=20 your area; it opens up an instant global market; and Internet Time = pretty much=20 guarantees that it will get better, fast. =20 Christensen eloquently makes the point that no matter how hard = current=20 companies work to please their existing customers, if they don't = effectively=20 embrace disruptive technologies once they appear, they're = toast.

Indeed,=20 I suspect that it’s just those broadcasters and content owners who = ARE=20 willing to take the first tentative steps into this new media, that will = be the=20 long-term winners. = (Which, I might=20 point out, is little different from those thrilling days of yesteryear = when the=20 movies were "threatened" by TV...)

It will be very interesting = to see if=20 RecordTV.com succeeds in its quest, or if Goliath wields its sword once=20 again. But when = RecordTV.com, or=20 one of the many that will surely follow it do succeed, then Watch Out = World,=20 because the entertainment rules, and the landscape of still-successful=20 entertainment companies, may never be the same again!

Back to Table of=20 Contents

Could The=20 Wireless Web Take The Lead!?!

This can't be correct -- = can=20 it? I mean, we've = seen the=20 growing number of recent articles about wireless Web access and the new=20 Web-aware phones and "Internet Appliances" that are making anywhere, = anywhen=20 Internet access possible. = But=20 still, at this time, it does seem rather presumptuous to say that = Wireless Web=20 access has taken the lead. =20

Nevertheless, in Japan, = that's=20 exactly what has now happened, according to a May 22 Reuters report! = (http:= //www.techweb.com/wire/story/reuters/REU20000522S0002)

"The=20 mobile phone [is now] Japan's most popular way of accessing the = Web."=20

Speaking of "disruptive=20 technologies," Japan now has 57 million cellular phone subscribers, = compared to=20 only 55 million people who still subscribe to "wired" phone service, and = ten=20 million of those pockets already have built-in Web access. Just one service, NTT DoCoMo, = is adding=20 20,000 new pocket Internet users -- every day!

The Japanese use their = pocket phones=20 (some of which have much larger displays than we're used to in the U.S.) = for=20 Email, banking, and access to 7,000+ Web sites optimized for mobile = access. In fact, wireless DoCoMo has = now=20 surpassed all traditional Japanese ISPs, "to become Japan's biggest = Internet=20 access platform."

Those are pretty = incredible changes,=20 considering we're talking about today's reality and not tomorrow's hype = -- Japan=20 has more wireless than wired phones, and wireless Internet-aware phones = now=20 surpass PCs as the preferred means to access the Internet. That should be a serious = wakeup call to=20 each one of us. =20

True, there may be = cultural issues=20 that caused this to first surface in Japan. But consider the = long-established trend=20 of = mainframes-to-minicomputers-to-PCs-to-notebooks-to-PDAs-to-phones: people increasingly want to = have access=20 to public and personal information whenever and wherever they are. Now, add in the significantly = increased=20 bandwidth that next-generation cellular systems will be bringing to our = pockets=20 (http://w= ww.compaq.com/rcfoc/20000424.html#_Toc480784980). =20 Based on these directions, I wouldn't assume that flocking to = wireless=20 Internet access will remain a Japanese phenomenon. =

Consider just two = examples: Microsoft recently made a big = splash at=20 the WirelessAgenda 2000 show, demonstrating how the new PocketPC devices = (the=20 newest version of Windows CE - http://www.micros= oft.com/pocketpc/default1.asp) will reach out without wires - = http://www.pc= world.com/cgi-bin/pcwtoday?ID=3D16841 ; and AT&T is now offering = free wireless=20 Internet access to its digital phone subscribers! Indeed, familiar Internet = household=20 names such as Yahoo! and Excite are rushing to appear on these pocket = home=20 pages. (http://www.zdnet.com/enterprise/stories/main/0,10228,2571756,00.html= )

Which begs this question = for us=20 all: are we ready for a=20 predominantly mobile Internet? = It's=20 not the case yet (except in Japan), but if we read the writing on the = virtual=20 wall, it seems that Web sites and Ecommerce practices that only deal = with=20 customers who are fixed in place at traditional PCs, will be seriously=20 restricting their potential markets. =20

The Internet is continuing = to do=20 what it's so good at doing -- changing things far faster than we have = any right=20 to expect. This "mobile = Internet"=20 may be very foreign to how we individually have been expecting things to = evolve,=20 but as we see every day in the Knowledge Age, those of us who don't=20 pragmatically recognize the changes that ARE occurring, and adapt = quickly, end up as road kill by the side of the Information = Highway.=20

Are you getting ready for = what may,=20 if Japan is an indication, evolve into a predominantly mobile = Internet?=20

Back to Table of Contents

Your = Feedback=20 is Important!

=20

I'd like to = understand your=20 interest in the RCFoC, how you make use of it,
and the value you feel = it=20 provides to you, your career, and to your company. =

Please send your = comments to=20 me at jeff.harrow@compaq.com=20

I look forward to = hearing=20 from you!

Jeff Harrow=20

Back to Table of=20 Contents

Silicon's=20 Serious E-Ticket Ride!

People have been forecasting the demise of Moore's Law (the doubling = of the=20 number of transistors on a chip every 18 months, which has driven the=20 electronics revolution) as the process that etches today's chips = (light-based=20 lithography) runs into very real physical limits in a few years.

(In today's Deep UltraViolet light = lithography, or=20 DUV, light passes through a specially created mask of the circuit = pattern,=20 shining towards the silicon wafer. =20 Glass lenses focus and reduce the light so that the entire chip = is=20 exposed at one time. It's = similar=20 to the way a darkroom enlarger exposes a sheet of photographic = paper.)

The problem is that we're never satisfied. We increasingly want to draw=20 ever-smaller lines on our chips, but the wavelength of the light is = getting too=20 big for the job! As the = May 19=20 News.com points out, we're now nearing those limiting dimensions (http://news.cnet.com/news/0-1003-200-1898384.html?tag=3Dst.ne.= 1002.bgif.ni).

Well, why don't we just use a shorter wavelength (higher frequency) = part of=20 the electromagnetic spectrum that can etch thinner lines? Indeed, people are already = experimenting=20 with the extremely short wavelength of electron beam lithography, which = can etch=20 incredibly tiny lines, even down to the atomic level. But this doesn't work with = masks and=20 lenses -- today's electron beam lithography systems must etch each line = on each=20 chip directly, one after another -- which is quite a bit more work than = exposing=20 an entire chip with one zap.

OK, so what about X-ray lithography? =20 X-rays can be projected like visible light, but, unfortunately = for this=20 purpose, they thumb their collective noses at most lenses. So a lens can't reduce the = image of a=20 reasonably sized mask onto each chip. =20 A tiny chip-sized mask (rather than a large one) could be used, = but as=20 you'd expect they are challenging to produce.

Continuing our travels back towards visible light, there is another = stopping=20 point -- the Extreme Ultra Violet, or EUV spectrum. But because most materials = absorb EUV=20 light, refractive lenses and masks won't work. New reflective techniques = though, being=20 pursued by the Extreme Ultra Violet LLC coalition, are able to use four = rather=20 special mirrors to focus and reduce the EUV image -- each mirror is made = up of=20 80 metallic layers, each only 12 atoms thick. The EUV coalition expects to = have=20 production EUV lithography systems in their members' hands by 2003, with = production chips emerging by 2005. =20 (More detailed information about EUV can be found at http://developer.intel.com/technology/itj/q31998/articles/art_4.htm).

But what does this EUV technology actually promise to future = chips?

Today, common microprocessors are made with elements as narrow as .18 = micron=20 (that's .18 millionths of a meter, or 180 billionths of a meter, which = is also=20 called 180 nanometers); leading-edge chips may soon be made with 130 = nanometer=20 elements. But EUV = is expected=20 to create elements as small as 70 nanometers, improving to be able to = create=20 lines as narrow as 30 nanometers (a mere 150 atoms wide), by 2009!

It seems that innovative people just insist on keeping Moore's Law = alive,=20 which is a good thing, considering how much of the global economy is now = indirectly or directly tied to Moore's Law's activities.

But even with these advances, we shouldn't rest TOO easy. EUV's Chuck Gwyn is quoted in = the=20 News.com article, talking about drawing circuits on silicon,

"Once you get to below 20 nanometers, = the=20 devices don't operate the same way."

Does that mean that things will finally stop shrinking at the 20 = nanometer=20 boundary, a decade or so from now? =20 Given history's lessons, that people ALWAYS find a way = around or=20 through any such "blockade," I'm not worried in the least. It could be quantum or DNA or = some other=20 form of computing that we haven't yet imagined, but I can't imagine that = we'll=20 allow this roller coaster ride to end. =20 You might say that silicon is on one serious E-ticket ride!

=20

Back to Table of=20 Contents

Ecommerce=20 Update.

=B7 =20 The Global Internet Population -- is = destined to=20 hit the 370 million mark by the end of this year, according to = eTForecasts (http= ://www.emarketer.com/estats/050200_global.html?ref=3Dwn),=20 up from 275 million Internet citizens at the end of 1999.

And how = this=20 population will be accessing the Internet will be changing. ETForecasts' Dr. Egil = Juliussen says in=20 the May 2 eMarketer, that

"'PCs will remain the overwhelming = Internet=20 access device, but 2000 is the first year that information appliances = will make=20 a dent...' By 2006, = information=20 appliances will finally match the number of PCs as web access = devices."

=B7 =20 Games Are NOT "Kid Stuff" -- Want to know = why PC=20 and video "games" are very serious business? Last year, total movie box = office=20 receipts totaled $7.3 billion. = That=20 same year, the total revenue from the PCs and video game industry = approached it=20 with a total of $6.1 billion, according to the May 12 AnchorDesk (http://www.zdnet.com/anchordesk/stories/story/0,10738,2565835,00.ht= ml).

That may seem = impressive, yet=20 it's likely to be only the beginning,

"But forget those numbers. They'll be = dwarfed as=20 the next generation of gaming consoles assaults the U.S." =

These new "video games" (PlayStation 2,=20 Microsoft's X-Box, and Nintendo's Dolphin) promise to be = "broadband-ready," will=20 reach out and surf the Web and do Email, and some will double as a DVD = player,=20 guaranteeing Junior's "game" a central place in the living room. Do these sound like = "games"?

So=20 here we have a new set of "communicating, computing appliances" with a = strong=20 draw -- Sony expects to sell its first million PlayStation 2s in two = months --=20 before they're even available! =20 They'll likely be a "front and center" part of a family's = entertainment=20 complex, and they just happen to provide Internet access. Something to ponder (and = watch), I=20 think...

=B7 =20 Drowning In Email Success? -- That could = be=20 what's in store for us, if Jupiter Communications' expectations come to = pass (http:= //www.jup.com/company/pressrelease.jsp?doc=3Dpr000508). They expect that by 2005, an = average=20 consumer will be receiving 1,600 Emails per year, up from 40 in = 1999. At the same time, commercial = Email=20 (spam?) will grow from a $164 million market in 1999, to $7.3 billion in = 2005,=20 as it takes over 13% of physical mail's commercial = revenues.

That's why=20 Email is still the Internet's "killer app..."

=B7 =20 Asian PC Sales -- are soaring, according = to the=20 May 16 AP and reader Alan Maltzman, with over four million PCs sold = during the=20 first quarter of this year, up 43% from the same period a year ago. Unsurprisingly, China was = Market One,=20 selling 1.37 million PCs, with South Korea, Australia, India, and Taiwan = following suit, according to figures from IDC.

That's a lot of = PCs, and a=20 lot of new people getting ready to join the Ecommerce dance...=20

Back to Table of=20 Contents

Tidbits...

=20

=B7 =20 Role=20 Reversal -- The = Web has a=20 long (in Internet time) history of giving us access to traditional news = sources,=20 but it seems that the Web is now mature enough to sometimes be the = primary=20 source of news, with traditional media reporting the news from the = Web!

RCFoC reader Danny = Mayer points=20 out that the recent coup on the island of Fiji was Webcast live by The = FijiLive=20 Network (http://www.fijilive.com/), providing real-time information = that was=20 then used by many traditional media. =20 According to the May 19 ABCnews.com (h= ttp://abcnews.go.com/sections/world/DailyNews/fiji000519.html), it was the Web that covered the = coup,=20 including the announcement that Fiji's constitution had been suspended, = and it=20 continued to update the world even after Fiji's international voice = phone=20 connections were severed. = Indeed,=20 in a fascinating reversal that may eventually become the norm, many Fiji = residents learned about the coup that was taking place around them by = watching a=20 BBC World News broadcast that was featuring information from FijiLive = Network's=20 Web site!

Just one more example of how the Web is changing our=20 world...

=B7 =20 Storage=20 Update -- In the = continuing=20 race to stuff more into less, Toshiba appears ready to offer the = smallest with=20 the mostest. According to = the May=20 15 PC World (http://www.pc= world.com/cgi-bin/pcwtoday?ID=3D16713), July will find a 1.8-inch, = 2-gigabyte disk=20 drive that can fit into a Type II PCMCIA card. (The price however, at least = initially,=20 will not match the tiny size; samples are expected to cost = $740.)

Also,=20 looking at the 2.5-inch disk drives typically found within a notebook, = Toshiba=20 plans to begin shipping a 20-gigabyte drive this month!

Sounds = like a lot=20 of storage -- until, of course, you begin working with (or just playing = and=20 storing) video...

=B7 =20 The OTHER=20 Direction -- Do = you recall,=20 not too many weeks ago, when Stephen King's print publisher was = "stunned" that=20 King's first Enovel would be so successful? (http://w= ww.compaq.com/rcfoc/20000403.html#_Toc478970062) =20 Well, the other shoe may have just fallen.

According to a press = release sent=20 out by NuvoMedia representative Mike Porcaro, "Lip Service," a novel = that was=20 first self-published by its author as an Ebook, has just been purchased = by=20 Pocket Books to be changed from bits into atoms!

It also seems that the=20 convergence of big-name authors and electronic publishing is = continuing. Microsoft has just released = Michael=20 Crichton's "Timeline" as an Ebook that will play on PocketPC devices, = and a=20 dozen Star Trek novels are set to follow. And Time Warner's iPublish is = looking=20 towards Epublishing authors like David Baldacci and Walter Mosley, = according to=20 the May 23 New York Times (http://partners.nytimes.com/library/tech/00/05/biztech/artic= les/23books.html). =20 So perhaps the traditional publishers are indeed waking up and = smelling=20 the digital roses. Robert = Baensch,=20 director of New York University's Center for Publishing and an = ex-publisher=20 himself, suggests that,

"The=20 large conglomerates realize now that they better learn by doing rather = than to=20 continue to observe not one, not 5, not 50, but hundreds of startup.coms = that=20 are entering this market."

Sounds=20 like a good move to me.

But could=20 this mean that in the (far) future, only a few, select books, which have = already=20 been wildly successful in electronic form, will be committed to paper = and=20 ink? I'm not sure I'd = like that.=20 Yet as Ebook displays = get better=20 and less expensive, it isn't an end-game that I'd rule out.

=B7 =20 Don't Throw=20 Out The Car -- Most of us=20 keep cars for more than a couple of years, and any sound system that we = put into=20 the car usually remains there until the car wears out its welcome. After all, sound system = technology has=20 evolved slowly (radios, cassettes, CDs), with each "generation" lasting = longer=20 than a car's lifetime.

But=20 there's a very real concern arriving with the new "computerized" car=20 entertainment centers, whose tendrils may reach throughout the car-- = what=20 happens when these (currently) proprietary entertainment systems evolve = at=20 computer speed?

Economic=20 reality will keep most of us from replacing a car just to get the latest = automotive electronics, so it is comforting to know that, according to = the April=20 10 Internet Daily, Delphi Automotive Systems and Ericsson are planning a = set of=20 standards that will make it (relatively) painless to upgrade automotive=20 multimedia, without having to upgrade the car. And that seems like a very = good idea to=20 me.

=B7 =20 Errata --=20 In the last issue, = when=20 describing the number of people with broadband connections (http://w= ww.compaq.com/rcfoc/20000515.html#_Toc482596371), I said:

"Yankee=20 Group expects there will be 12.6 million broadband users in the U.S. by = 2003;=20 IDC says the number could top 20 million."

However,=20 Steven Wierenga and other readers pointed out that the Yankee Group = figure was=20 really for "households," not for individual users, which makes the two = estimates=20 more closely aligned.
=20

Back to Table of=20 Contents

From Out of=20 the Ether.

=B7 =20 The Changing Global Scene -- Sweden seems = to be=20 headed towards becoming the first "online country," given the = government's=20 proposal to extend a 5 megabit/second Internet connection to every home = (http://w= ww.compaq.com/rcfoc/20000403.html#_Toc478970063). And that has the potential to = change a=20 lot of the rules of international commerce. Here, RCFoC reader Richard = Hart=20 highlights a few of the changes they may soon encounter:

"Most Swedes know some English. Many = are very=20 fluent. If they have 5 Mbit/sec connections, we should expect to see = them=20 selling us lots of things from their homes: Graphic artistry, web site = design,=20 tax preparation help, music, and videos, genealogical research, = investment=20 services, and so much more.

I wonder what impact this might have = on the=20 US balance of payments. What impact will it have on our economy if = instead of=20 buying services from providers down the street, we use providers in = Sweden (or=20 Japan, or Argentina, or Tonga, or ...)? Our financial, legal, tax, and=20 regulatory infrastructures are going to need to make some BIG changes = soon to=20 keep up with all this."

A truly global marketplace is nothing to = ignore --=20 and the Internet is, quite literally, bringing it right to our = doors.

In=20 a similar vein, RCFoC reader Manoj Menon points out that the = entrepreneurial=20 Internet sprit is very much alive and well in India:

"Recently McKinsey India, called for = Business=20 Plans from would-be Internet Entrepreneurs, expecting about 300 = responses; they=20 received almost 2000!"

Manoj goes on to point out that = innovative uses of=20 the Web, such as for reserving movie tickets (which we'll soon be able = to do for=20 many U.S. theaters - http://w= ww.compaq.com/rcfoc/20000403.html#_Toc478970061),=20 don't necessarily begin in the U.S:

"In India we have been using the Web to = reserve=20 movie tickets for over a year (probably two) and in fact that's the only = method=20 that I use to reserve a ticket (http://clicktickets.com/). The good news for users like = me is that=20 the service is free, and that more often than not one can get tickets = even for=20 popular movies (because Internet penetration in India is still low there = are few=20 takers for the 50 odd seats reserved for internet bookings). The bad = news is=20 that payments are not accepted on-line, so one still needs to show up at = the=20 ticket counter 30 minutes before the show to pay in cash and collect the = tickets."

Indeed, New Zealand RCFoC reader = Francois Visagie=20 also points out that a similar service (http://www.computicket.co.za/)= has been=20 available down under "...for a number of years now."

The Internet is truly a global = environment, and we=20 should all remember that no one country has a lock on its = innovation...

=B7 =20 No Droids In MY Backyard, Please -- = That's the=20 sentiment of RCFoC reader T. Lardens, responding to our discussions = around=20 autonomous airborne delivery vehicles (http://w= ww.compaq.com/rcfoc/20000403.html#_Toc478970065):

"Delivery droids? What about the noise pollution = [they]=20 would create? And what = about the=20 further aesthetic degradation of our skies? I'll need to buy some serious = guns and=20 ammo to blast these annoyances out of the sky...

Hey, how bout giant sized near earth = orbiting=20 billboards. This should = appeal [to=20 people] who don't know anything about how quality of life relates to=20 aesthetics.

Get a grip."

He could be right -- think about some of = the sci=20 fi movies that show future skies clogged with horizon-to-horizon flying=20 vehicles. Which is why we = should=20 all be vigilant as new technologies approach commercialization; we all = want to=20 be sure they're implemented in ways that we can, quite literally, live = with.

=20

Back to Table of=20 Contents

The Unwanted=20 Ecommerce.

Finally, in general, the proliferation of Ecommerce is seen as a good = thing. Global instant = markets for a=20 dizzying array of goods and services tend to help both buyers and = sellers=20 alike. But at least in = the case of=20 one new "product," which is actually an outgrowth of the Internet = itself, some=20 companies are attempting to stem the Ecommerce tide.

According to RCFoC reader Kenneth LaCrosse and the May 19 BBC News = (http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/sci/tech/newsid_755000/755614.stm= ),=20 superior characters and sought-after magic items that are used in online = virtual=20 games such as Everquest (http://www.station.sony.c= om/everquest/)=20 and Ultima Online (http://www.uo.com/), are=20 finding their way into the very real world of Ecommerce. And this is not a trivial = thing -- the=20 most valuable virtual commodities are bidding for as much as one = thousand very=20 real dollars!

What's happening is that some players who have more time than money, = are=20 nurturing their characters and searching out the "goodies" that are = prized by=20 all, and then offering to sell them to other aspiring players who have = more=20 money than time.

(How might this actually work? Player A might agree to sell = something,=20 like a valuable shield, to Player B. =20 Once real payment has been made, their characters would meet at a = specific place in the virtual world. =20 Player A would then "drop" the shield on the ground, and Player B = would=20 pick it up. Done Deal.)

Sony, the company that runs Everquest, is trying to stem this tide = due to=20 some players' frustrations over working long and hard to build up their=20 character, only to have someone else purchase those skills or objects = with real=20 world dollars. Sony has = even added=20 a special "remember our policy" warning to the game. But they do admit there isn't = too much=20 they can do.

On the other hand, consider that these games strive hard to simulate = many=20 elements of the real world. =20 Perhaps, they've just succeeded far more than they = intended...

About the "Rapidly Changing Face = of=20 Computing..."

The "Rapidly Changing Face of Computing" is a weekly technology = journal=20 providing insight, analysis and commentary on contemporary computing and = the=20 technologies that drive them.

The RCFoC is written by Jeffrey R.=20 Harrow, Principal Member of Technical Staff with the Technology = &=20 Corporate Development organization of Compaq Computer = Corporation.

The=20 RCFoC is published as a service of, but not necessarily reflecting the = opinions=20 of, Compaq Computer Corporation. Copyright =A9 1996-2000, Compaq = Computer=20 Corporation. All rights reserved.=20

Where To Find the Rapidly Changing Face of = Computing=20 Technology Journal=20

You can subscribe to this weekly journal, which will help you keep up = on the=20 changes that are constantly occurring in our industry!

=20

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